Venezia 2-1 Cremonese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.6
No
54%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.02
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.02 — our 30% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.92
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
10%
12.8
X/1
18%
4.93
X/2
14%
6.71
X/X
8%
5.12
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
16%
4.49
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.4pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venezia EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Cremonese EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.76/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.11
+22% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
20.2 Crosses 21.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venezia
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cremonese
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.09 xG 1.47
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
387 Passes 294
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 Cremonese Cremonese 1-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
09.02.2021 Venezia Venezia 3-1 HT 1-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
17.10.2020 Cremonese Cremonese 0-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
18.01.2020 Cremonese Cremonese 0-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
24.08.2019 Venezia Venezia 1-2 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
17.03.2019 Venezia Venezia 1-1 HT 1-1 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venezia
2-1
AWAY Cremonese
0.98 xG 0.99
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
225 Passes 382
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Venezia vs Cremonese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venezia edged past Cremonese 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and on the day Venezia made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Venezia had 41% of the ball to Cremonese's 59%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.98 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cremonese led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Venezia and 0.83 for Cremonese.

What was the final score of Venezia vs Cremonese?

Venezia 2-1 Cremonese in the Italy - Serie B on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venezia vs Cremonese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venezia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Venezia 40%, draw 24%, Cremonese 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Venezia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Venezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
26 Apr 2024
21:30 Pisa vs Catanzaro Analysis →