Mamelodi Sundowns 0-1 ES Tunis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.36
Over 2.5
37%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.75
No
63%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
1.83
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
20%
7.87
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
5%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.8pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.6pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
70%
-6.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
30%
+6.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
32%
+4.3pp
64%
BTTS No
68%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Tunis EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.02/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.46
-9% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 74%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.9
15.2 Crosses 14.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
0W-1D-2L
AWAY ES Tunis
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.77 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
5 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
318 Passes 277
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
9 Box Touches 14
7 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.04.2024 ES Tunis ES Tunis 1-0 HT 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns AŞL
22.06.2017 ES Tunis ES Tunis 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns CAFŞL
02.06.2017 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-2 HT 1-1 ES Tunis ES Tunis CAFŞL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
0-1
AWAY ES Tunis
2.22 xG 0.46
72% Ball Possession 28%
27 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 0
397 Passes 102
79% Pass Accuracy 48%
35 Box Touches 5
40 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Tunis squeezed past Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Mamelodi Sundowns at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 72% of the ball to ES Tunis's 28%, shots finished 27-6, expected goals 2.22 to 0.46 — the balance of chances actually favoured Mamelodi Sundowns.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, ES Tunis led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 1.00 for ES Tunis.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis?

Mamelodi Sundowns 0-1 ES Tunis in the CAF Champions League on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 48%, draw 31%, ES Tunis 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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