Dinamo Brest 2-2 Naftan Novopolotsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.45
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.0
Over 2.5
60%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.95
No
45%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.71
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
33%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.27 — our 33% vs market 25.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-6.5pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.1pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+5.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
46%
-6.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
54%
+6.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.9pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Brest EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 17%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
2.19/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.81
+16% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Brest
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest 2-2 HT 1-1 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
30.04.2023 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-3 HT 0-1 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLR
10.07.2021 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 2-2 HT 2-0 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLRK
21.10.2017 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-4 HT 0-1 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLR
16.11.2015 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest 1-0 HT 1-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLRK
12.11.2015 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 3-1 HT 2-1 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Brest
2-2
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Dinamo Brest vs Naftan Novopolotsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Brest and Naftan Novopolotsk shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dinamo Brest at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Dinamo Brest had 54% of the ball to Naftan Novopolotsk's 46%, shots finished 14-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Brest had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Dinamo Brest and 1.17 for Naftan Novopolotsk.

What was the final score of Dinamo Brest vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Dinamo Brest 2-2 Naftan Novopolotsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Brest vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Brest 58%, draw 22%, Naftan Novopolotsk 20%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dinamo Brest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Brest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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