Vitebsk 1-0 BATE Borisov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
48%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.69
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.36
6+ Goals
7%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.0pp
23%
Draw
29%
-5.9pp
48%
Away Win
41%
+7.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY BATE Borisov EU Bookmakers 45%
-15% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +30%
0.43/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.40
-66% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitebsk
0W-2D-4L
AWAY BATE Borisov
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2022 Vitebsk Vitebsk 1-1 HT 0-0 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
08.05.2022 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov 2-1 HT 1-1 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
28.11.2021 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov 4-0 HT 0-0 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
04.07.2021 Vitebsk Vitebsk 0-0 HT 0-0 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
07.04.2021 Vitebsk Vitebsk 2-3 HT 1-2 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLRK
07.03.2021 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov 2-1 HT 1-1 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitebsk
1-0
AWAY BATE Borisov
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitebsk vs BATE Borisov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitebsk nicked a narrow win over BATE Borisov 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was BATE Borisov at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Vitebsk had 43% of the ball to BATE Borisov's 57%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BATE Borisov led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vitebsk and 2.00 for BATE Borisov.

What was the final score of Vitebsk vs BATE Borisov?

Vitebsk 1-0 BATE Borisov in the Belarus - Premier League on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitebsk vs BATE Borisov?

Before kick-off our model rated an BATE Borisov win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vitebsk 29%, draw 23%, BATE Borisov 48%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (BATE Borisov) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BATE Borisov) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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