Metropolitan 0-2 Lanus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.71
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
49%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
1.74
Over
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No Pick
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.89
2-3
37%
1.77
4-5
23%
4.04
6+
7%
18.8
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.89 — our 33% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.75
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
5%
17.35
X/1
13%
10.25
X/2
18%
3.66
X/X
10%
4.78
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.11
2/X
10%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
18%
+8.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
49%
Away Win
58%
-8.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.1pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metropolitan EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Lanus EU Bookmakers 62%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.13/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.66
-7% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
244 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 76%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
19.5 Crosses 33.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metropolitan
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Lanus
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.38 xG 1.52
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
284 Passes 440
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
7 Box Touches 37
12 Crosses 34
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2022 Lanus Lanus 1-0 HT 0-0 Metropolitan CSA
08.04.2022 Metropolitan 0-0 HT 0-0 Lanus Lanus CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metropolitan
0-2
AWAY Lanus
1.21 xG 1.40
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
304 Passes 259
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 21
31 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Metropolitan vs Lanus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lanus saw off Metropolitan 2-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lanus as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Metropolitan had 55% of the ball to Lanus's 45%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.21 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lanus led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Metropolitan and 0.50 for Lanus.

What was the final score of Metropolitan vs Lanus?

Metropolitan 0-2 Lanus in the Copa Sudamericana on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metropolitan vs Lanus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lanus win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Metropolitan 27%, draw 24%, Lanus 49%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lanus), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lanus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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26 Apr 2024
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