Nacional 2-2 Racing Club Montevideo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.62
Over
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.6
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
20%
4.54
6+
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.59
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
11%
5.1
X/2
13%
5.89
X/X
12%
3.84
2/1
11%
32.0
2/2
16%
4.41
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-2.6pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.6pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+6.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.3pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 34%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-5% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.9 Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
2-2
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
1.28 xG 0.86
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
298 Passes 263
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 13
41 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Racing Club Montevideo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional and Racing Club Montevideo shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional had 53% of the ball to Racing Club Montevideo's 47%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.28 to 0.86.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Nacional 2-2 Racing Club Montevideo in the Copa Sudamericana on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Racing Club Montevideo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nacional 36%, draw 26%, Racing Club Montevideo 38%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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