Hillerod 0-0 Naestved — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.64
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.32
6+ Goals
12%
11.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.32 — our 29% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.13
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.3
X/1
18%
3.79
X/2
9%
9.35
X/X
14%
5.71
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.85
2/2
8%
7.22
2/X
6%
16.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.4pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.2pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.8pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Naestved EU Bookmakers 24%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +7%
1.28/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.61
+42% / +134% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
16.1 Crosses 19.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Naestved
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 1.18
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
364 Passes 348
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.11.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 1-0 HT 1-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
24.09.2023 Naestved Naestved 2-2 HT 1-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
11.03.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 2-0 HT 0-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
02.10.2022 Naestved Naestved 2-0 HT 1-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
26.03.2022 Hillerod Hillerod 1-1 HT 0-1 Naestved Naestved DAN2
18.08.2021 Naestved Naestved 1-0 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
0-0
AWAY Naestved
1.25 xG 0.30
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
608 Passes 250
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
37 Box Touches 9
40 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs Naestved
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hillerod and Naestved played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Hillerod at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hillerod had 67% of the ball to Naestved's 33%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.25 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hillerod and 1.00 for Naestved.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs Naestved?

Hillerod 0-0 Naestved in the Denmark 1st Division on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs Naestved?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 52%, draw 25%, Naestved 23%. The final score 0-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hillerod) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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