Al Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Buriram United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
61%
1.16
Draw
24%
7.13
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
3.46
Over
59%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
16%
8.25
2-3
39%
2.36
4-5
31%
2.3
6+
14%
3.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 8.25 — our 16% vs market 7.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1.23
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
31.0
X/1
11%
4.06
X/2
4%
35.0
X/X
11%
13.75
2/1
7%
21.25
2/2
7%
30.0
2/X
6%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Al Ahli Jeddah win — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
82%
-20.9pp
24%
Draw
11%
+12.3pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+8.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
25%
+15.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
75%
-15.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.4pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Buriram United EU Bookmakers 9%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +17%
3.50/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/0.93
-4% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +150%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
404 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 75%
35.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
16.5 Crosses 15.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
3-0
AWAY Buriram United
2.58 xG 0.32
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
516 Passes 231
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 6
18 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Ahli Jeddah vs Buriram United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Jeddah swept aside Buriram United 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Ahli Jeddah as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Al Ahli Jeddah had 65% of the ball to Buriram United's 35%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.58 to 0.32.

What was the final score of Al Ahli Jeddah vs Buriram United?

Al Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Buriram United in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli Jeddah vs Buriram United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli Jeddah 61%, draw 24%, Buriram United 15%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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