Yokohama F. Marinos 1-4 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
5.34
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
46%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.96
Over Pick
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
22%
6.67
2-3
37%
2.16
4-5
27%
2.39
6+
14%
4.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
10.05
1/2
5%
17.8
1/X
8%
18.5
X/1
11%
14.2
X/2
17%
4.31
X/X
9%
8.47
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
23%
1.68
2/X
8%
16.5
Value flag · X/1 at 14.2 — our 11% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
16%
+14.3pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.9pp
46%
Away Win
66%
-20.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.6pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 70%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +40%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
289 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
Crosses 16.1
Yellow Cards 1.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Yokohama F. Marinos
1-4
AWAY Al Nassr
0.67 xG 3.22
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 13
1 Corners 6
280 Passes 602
83% Pass Accuracy 91%
11 Box Touches 37
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Yokohama F. Marinos vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr cruised past Yokohama F. Marinos 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Yokohama F. Marinos had 35% of the ball to Al Nassr's 65%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.67 to 3.22.

What was the final score of Yokohama F. Marinos vs Al Nassr?

Yokohama F. Marinos 1-4 Al Nassr in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yokohama F. Marinos vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Yokohama F. Marinos 30%, draw 24%, Al Nassr 46%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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