San Lorenzo 0-1 Rosario Central — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
29%
2.66
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.33
Over 2.5
30%
3.14
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.51
No
65%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
1.73
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
15%
7.76
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.76
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.3
X/1
18%
4.88
X/2
14%
6.44
X/X
16%
2.96
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
13%
5.72
2/X
7%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.1pp
29%
Draw
34%
-5.5pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.6pp
70%
Under 2.5
72%
-2.1pp
30%
Over 2.5
28%
+2.1pp
35%
BTTS Yes
36%
-0.9pp
65%
BTTS No
64%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Rosario Central EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +11%
1.26/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.18
-6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
23.8 Crosses 19.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Lorenzo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Rosario Central
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.92 xG 1.39
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
270 Passes 314
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.11.2024 Rosario Central Rosario Central 0-1 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
01.07.2023 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-0 HT 0-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
27.08.2022 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-1 HT 0-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
21.09.2021 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
13.05.2021 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-2 HT 1-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central CON CSA
29.04.2021 Rosario Central Rosario Central 2-0 HT 1-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Lorenzo
0-1
AWAY Rosario Central
0.48 xG 0.92
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
338 Passes 287
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH San Lorenzo vs Rosario Central
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rosario Central squeezed past San Lorenzo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Rosario Central made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (65%) came in.

On the day, San Lorenzo had 53% of the ball to Rosario Central's 47%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.48 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rosario Central led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for San Lorenzo and 1.00 for Rosario Central.

What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Rosario Central?

San Lorenzo 0-1 Rosario Central in the Argentina - Premier League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Rosario Central?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Lorenzo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 38%, draw 29%, Rosario Central 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (San Lorenzo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Lorenzo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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