Neftçi PFK 1-5 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
50%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
27%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
-0.0pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.2pp
51%
Away Win
48%
+2.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.0pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.6pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 52%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.03/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.50/1.05
-6% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / -12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
297 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Karabağ
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
09.11.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
19.04.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 3-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
16.02.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
01.12.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-3 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.09.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-0 HT 3-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
24.04.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-1 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ swept aside Neftçi PFK 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Neftçi PFK and 2.83 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Karabağ?

Neftçi PFK 1-5 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 27%, draw 23%, Karabağ 51%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
26 Apr 2026
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