Chelsea 1-0 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 26 Apr 2026

Chelsea
1 - 0 HT 1 - 0
Leeds United
📅26/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2025/2026

Chelsea vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
23%
3.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.02
Over Pick
57%
1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.17
Total Goals
0-1
21%
3.79
2-3
45%
1.8
4-5
26%
3.04
6+
8%
9.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.69
1/2
2%
32.0
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
17%
4.83
X/2
9%
7.31
X/X
14%
5.16
2/1
3%
22.65
2/2
13%
5.1
2/X
5%
13.45
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Chelsea v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Chelsea The Market 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United The Market 31%
Bad Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Bad
1.81 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.24
1.12 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.93
Bad Attack Strength Bad
Great Defense Strength Weak
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
248 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 77%
35 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards –

Chelsea vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Leeds United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.46 xG 1.56
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
556 Passes 298
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.02.2026 Chelsea Chelsea 2-2 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
03.12.2025 Leeds United Leeds United 3-1 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
28.02.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 3-2 HT 2-1 Leeds United Leeds United FAK
04.03.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
21.08.2022 Leeds United Leeds United 3-0 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
11.05.2022 Leeds United Leeds United 0-3 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP

Chelsea 1-0 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
1 - 0
AWAY Leeds United
0.38 xG 0.84
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
425 Passes 323
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Chelsea vs Leeds United
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Chelsea found just enough to beat Leeds United 1-0.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) never looked like landing.

Under the surface, Chelsea had 54% of the ball to Leeds United's 46%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.38 to 0.84 — the balance of chances actually favoured Leeds United.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chelsea and 1.67 for Leeds United.

Chelsea vs Leeds United Result & Final Score

Chelsea 1 - 0 Leeds United in the England - FA Cup on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Chelsea vs Leeds United Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 52%, draw 25%, Leeds United 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →