Chelsea 3-2 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 28 Feb 2024

Chelsea
3-2 HT 2-1
Leeds United
📅28/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Chelsea vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.78
6+ Goals
12%
7.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.9
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.75
X/1
22%
3.94
X/2
6%
11.4
X/X
6%
6.53
2/1
7%
20.15
2/2
10%
8.07
2/X
8%
16.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.2pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.6pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.2pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 21%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
2.02/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.28
-7% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +47%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
402 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
15.1 Crosses –
0.7 Yellow Cards –

Chelsea vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Leeds United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.90 xG 1.05
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
469 Passes 287
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.03.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
21.08.2022 Leeds United Leeds United 3-0 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
11.05.2022 Leeds United Leeds United 0-3 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
11.12.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 3-2 HT 1-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
13.03.2021 Leeds United Leeds United 0-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
05.12.2020 Chelsea Chelsea 3-1 HT 1-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNP

Chelsea 3-2 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
3-2
AWAY Leeds United
0.99 xG 1.45
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
483 Passes 466
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea nicked a narrow win over Leeds United 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Chelsea had 51% of the ball to Leeds United's 49%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.99 to 1.45 — the balance of chances actually favoured Leeds United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chelsea and 1.00 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Leeds United?

Chelsea 3-2 Leeds United in the England - FA Cup on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 54%, draw 23%, Leeds United 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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