Nottingham Forest 0-1 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 28 Feb 2024

Nottingham Forest
0-1 HT 0-0
Manchester United
📅28/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
4.64
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
10%
8.07
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.64 — our 29% vs market 16.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.7
1/2
11%
22.3
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
11%
7.24
X/2
15%
4.86
X/X
9%
5.51
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
18%
2.7
2/X
9%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.1pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nottingham Forest v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 49%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.39/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/1.24
-41% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 80%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
8.0 Crosses 14.2
– Yellow Cards 3.4

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Manchester United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.79 xG 2.31
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
214 Passes 513
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 36
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.12.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
26.08.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 3-2 HT 1-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
16.04.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-2 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
01.02.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNLK
25.01.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-3 HT 0-2 Manchester United Manchester United İNLK
27.12.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 3-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP

Nottingham Forest 0-1 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
0-1
AWAY Manchester United
0.88 xG 2.05
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
266 Passes 454
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
30 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United edged past Nottingham Forest 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 40% of the ball to Manchester United's 60%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 0.88 to 2.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nottingham Forest and 2.33 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United?

Nottingham Forest 0-1 Manchester United in the England - FA Cup on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 32%, draw 24%, Manchester United 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester United) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester United)
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