Liverpool 3-0 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 28 Feb 2024

📅28/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.61
Over 2.5
54%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.9
2-3 Goals
37%
2.06
4-5 Goals
27%
2.59
6+ Goals
12%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.65
X/1
14%
3.92
X/2
11%
13.2
X/X
11%
7.34
2/1
7%
19.4
2/2
10%
8.96
2/X
5%
16.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
64%
-14.3pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.4pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
35%
+11.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
65%
-11.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.9pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 20%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.94/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.59
-11% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% / +30%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
451 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
16.0 Crosses 14.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Southampton
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.25 xG 0.92
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
546 Passes 275
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
43 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.05.2023 Southampton Southampton 4-4 HT 2-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
12.11.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 3-1 HT 3-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
17.05.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
27.11.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 4-0 HT 3-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
08.05.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
04.01.2021 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
3-0
AWAY Southampton
1.58 xG 1.78
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 8
529 Passes 480
90% Pass Accuracy 88%
36 Box Touches 27
23 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool swept aside Southampton 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Liverpool had 52% of the ball to Southampton's 48%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.58 to 1.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Liverpool and 1.17 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Southampton?

Liverpool 3-0 Southampton in the England - FA Cup on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 49%, draw 24%, Southampton 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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