Kortrijk 4-2 Lommel United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Playoff, 26 May 2024

Kortrijk
4-2 HT 0-1
Lommel United
📅26/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Belgium - Playoff – 2023/2024

Kortrijk vs Lommel United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
1.95
Over 2.5
60%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.56
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.37
6+ Goals
12%
12.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.37 — our 29% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.63
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
10%
4.42
X/2
13%
7.39
X/X
11%
5.0
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
11%
5.38
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.1
Value flag · 2/X at 14.1 — our 10% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-8.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
48%
-7.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
52%
+7.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.6pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kortrijk v Lommel United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kortrijk EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Lommel United EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Kortrijk vs Lommel United Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kortrijk
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Lommel United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.06 xG 1.20
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
209 Passes 555
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 27
8 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Lommel United Lommel United 0-1 HT 0-1 Kortrijk Kortrijk BELP
02.02.2021 Lommel United Lommel United 1-3 HT 0-1 Kortrijk Kortrijk BEK

Kortrijk 4-2 Lommel United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kortrijk
4-2
AWAY Lommel United
3.48 xG 1.51
44% Ball Possession 56%
20 Total Shots 14
13 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
302 Passes 431
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
48 Box Touches 30
38 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Kortrijk vs Lommel United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kortrijk beat Lommel United 4-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Kortrijk found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kortrijk had 44% of the ball to Lommel United's 56%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 3.48 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kortrijk had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kortrijk and 0.50 for Lommel United.

What was the final score of Kortrijk vs Lommel United?

Kortrijk 4-2 Lommel United in the Belgium - Playoff on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kortrijk vs Lommel United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kortrijk win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Kortrijk 40%, draw 29%, Lommel United 31%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kortrijk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kortrijk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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