Vila Nova 2-2 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.9
6+ Goals
7%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
55%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.5pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -5%
1.42/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.50
-22% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
21.8 Crosses 17.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Brusque
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.01 xG 0.98
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
250 Passes 343
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2022 Brusque Brusque 0-1 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
08.06.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-2 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
25.10.2021 Brusque Brusque 2-3 HT 1-2 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
21.07.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
2-2
AWAY Brusque
1.41 xG 0.71
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
395 Passes 218
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova and Brusque shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Vila Nova at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vila Nova had 62% of the ball to Brusque's 38%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.41 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vila Nova and 1.25 for Brusque.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Brusque?

Vila Nova 2-2 Brusque in the Brazil - Serie B on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 55%, draw 27%, Brusque 18%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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