Porto 2-1 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 26 May 2024

Porto
2-1 HT 1-1
Sporting CP
📅26/05/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2023/2024

Porto vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.57
6+ Goals
11%
14.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.57 — our 23% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.98
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
4%
12.8
X/1
17%
5.86
X/2
13%
5.38
X/X
16%
4.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
30.0
2/2
13%
3.52
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 6% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+5.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-6.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.2pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Porto v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 40%
+44% / +44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/3.00
-26% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +134% / -54%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
346 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
15.0 Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards –

Porto vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sporting CP
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.56 xG 1.08
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
281 Passes 366
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.04.2024 Porto Porto 2-2 HT 2-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
18.12.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
12.02.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
28.01.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 0-2 HT 0-1 Porto Porto PORLC
20.08.2022 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.04.2022 Porto Porto 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POK

Porto 2-1 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
2-1
AWAY Sporting CP
2.59 xG 0.68
65% Ball Possession 35%
25 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 3
514 Passes 227
85% Pass Accuracy 69%
53 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 13
6 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Porto vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto squeezed past Sporting CP 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Porto had 65% of the ball to Sporting CP's 35%, shots finished 25-12, expected goals 2.59 to 0.68 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Porto's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Porto and 0.83 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Porto vs Sporting CP?

Porto 2-1 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Cup on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Porto 41%, draw 28%, Sporting CP 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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