Porto 2-2 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

Porto
2-2 HT 2-0
Sporting CP
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Porto vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.75
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 28% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.13
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.25
X/1
18%
5.17
X/2
13%
6.52
X/X
9%
4.72
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
4.36
2/X
10%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+4.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.3pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Porto v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 34%
+11% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
2.30/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.38
+85% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
18.0 Crosses 12.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.6

Porto vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Sporting CP
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.56 xG 0.96
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
288 Passes 349
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
18.12.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
12.02.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
28.01.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 0-2 HT 0-1 Porto Porto PORLC
20.08.2022 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.04.2022 Porto Porto 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POK
02.03.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POK

Porto 2-2 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
2-2
AWAY Sporting CP
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
325 Passes 423
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH Porto vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto and Sporting CP shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Porto at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Porto had 43% of the ball to Sporting CP's 57%, shots finished 11-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Porto and 0.67 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Porto vs Sporting CP?

Porto 2-2 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Porto 46%, draw 25%, Sporting CP 30%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
28 Apr 2024
17:30 Portimonense vs Moreirense Analysis →
20:00 Estoril vs Famalicao Analysis →