Estoril 1-0 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.14
6+ Goals
10%
19.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.48
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
13%
5.06
X/2
9%
5.9
X/X
13%
4.12
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
16%
4.32
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
+0.0pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.22/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.29
+13% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
18.4 Crosses 18.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Famalicao
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.97 xG 1.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
301 Passes 331
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.12.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
29.01.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
15.12.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao PORLC
06.08.2022 Estoril Estoril 2-0 HT 2-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
29.04.2022 Famalicao Famalicao 3-1 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
18.12.2021 Estoril Estoril 2-2 HT 2-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-0
AWAY Famalicao
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
312 Passes 350
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril nicked a narrow win over Famalicao 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Estoril made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Estoril had 48% of the ball to Famalicao's 52%, shots finished 8-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Famalicao led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Estoril and 1.33 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Famalicao?

Estoril 1-0 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estoril 39%, draw 29%, Famalicao 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estoril), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Estoril) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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