Shenzhen FC 1-0 Beijing Guoan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 26 Jul 2024

📅26/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
44%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.64
Over 2.5
54%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.9
No
45%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
4.49
6+ Goals
9%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.04
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
29.5
1/X
4%
14.35
X/1
13%
6.39
X/2
13%
4.54
X/X
13%
4.06
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.13
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.2pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.0pp
44%
Away Win
42%
+1.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
57%
-11.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
43%
+11.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.8pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shenzhen FC EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 46%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.89/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/1.89
+36% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
18.4 Crosses 17.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shenzhen FC
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Beijing Guoan
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.75 xG 1.99
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
295 Passes 422
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.04.2024 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 1-2 HT 0-1 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİNSL
04.11.2023 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-3 HT 0-2 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİNSL
08.07.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 5-0 HT 2-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİNSL
11.07.2022 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 2-1 HT 0-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
21.06.2022 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 4-1 HT 1-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
04.01.2022 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shenzhen FC
1-0
AWAY Beijing Guoan
2.13 xG 1.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
284 Passes 433
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Shenzhen FC vs Beijing Guoan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shenzhen FC edged past Beijing Guoan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Beijing Guoan at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shenzhen FC had 40% of the ball to Beijing Guoan's 60%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.13 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Beijing Guoan led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Shenzhen FC and 2.50 for Beijing Guoan.

What was the final score of Shenzhen FC vs Beijing Guoan?

Shenzhen FC 1-0 Beijing Guoan in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shenzhen FC vs Beijing Guoan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Beijing Guoan win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Shenzhen FC 32%, draw 24%, Beijing Guoan 44%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Beijing Guoan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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