Hobro IK 3-6 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 26 Jul 2024

Hobro IK
3-6 HT 1-3
Esbjerg
📅26/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2024/2025

Hobro IK vs Esbjerg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.96
6+ Goals
13%
8.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.36 — our 26% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.29
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
9%
12.3
X/1
14%
5.52
X/2
8%
6.16
X/X
11%
5.15
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
15%
3.83
2/X
6%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
40%
+5.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.1pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hobro IK v Esbjerg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hobro IK EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 37%
-15% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.14/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.27
-43% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 77%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
22.2 Crosses 14.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Hobro IK vs Esbjerg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hobro IK
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.88 xG 1.82
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
362 Passes 286
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
35 Box Touches 17
31 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.05.2022 Hobro IK Hobro IK 1-2 HT 0-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
31.03.2022 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-2 HT 2-1 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
29.10.2021 Hobro IK Hobro IK 2-6 HT 0-3 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
10.09.2021 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-1 HT 0-1 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
19.03.2021 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-0 HT 0-0 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
24.10.2020 Hobro IK Hobro IK 1-2 HT 0-1 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1

Hobro IK 3-6 Esbjerg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hobro IK
3-6
AWAY Esbjerg
2.01 xG 2.59
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 11
12 Corners 7
418 Passes 435
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
32 Box Touches 29
38 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hobro IK vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg ran out comfortable winners over Hobro IK 6-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Hobro IK at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hobro IK had 50% of the ball to Esbjerg's 50%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 2.01 to 2.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Esbjerg led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hobro IK and 2.50 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of Hobro IK vs Esbjerg?

Hobro IK 3-6 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hobro IK vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hobro IK win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Hobro IK 46%, draw 25%, Esbjerg 29%. The final score 3-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hobro IK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hobro IK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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