AC Horsens 3-2 Hillerod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 26 Jul 2024

📅26/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
45%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.14
1/2
9%
24.45
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
9%
6.04
X/2
22%
4.88
X/X
13%
5.28
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
14%
3.1
2/X
8%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
34%
-6.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
45%
Away Win
42%
+2.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.4pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Hillerod EU Bookmakers 46%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.33/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.10
-18% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +32%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
16.9 Crosses 21.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Horsens
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Hillerod
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.76 xG 2.02
39% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
258 Passes 460
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2024 Hillerod Hillerod 2-0 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
05.04.2024 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-0 HT 1-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
27.10.2023 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-3 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
29.09.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 0-0 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Horsens
3-2
AWAY Hillerod
1.37 xG 0.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
294 Passes 290
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AC Horsens vs Hillerod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens edged past Hillerod 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Hillerod at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AC Horsens had 50% of the ball to Hillerod's 50%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.37 to 0.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Hillerod led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for AC Horsens and 1.25 for Hillerod.

What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Hillerod?

AC Horsens 3-2 Hillerod in the Denmark 1st Division on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Horsens vs Hillerod?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split AC Horsens 28%, draw 27%, Hillerod 45%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hillerod) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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