Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 26 Jul 2024

📅26/07/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
33%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.36
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
14%
4.2
X/2
12%
8.38
X/X
12%
5.33
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
13%
6.11
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
52%
-11.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+9.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
410 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.6 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Motor Lublin
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.12.2023 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL1
28.07.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
0-2
AWAY Motor Lublin
0.55 xG 1.54
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
457 Passes 333
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin beat Lechia Gdansk 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lechia Gdansk at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 57% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 43%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.55 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Motor Lublin led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.00 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin?

Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 41%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin 33%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) ✗ BTTS Yes
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