Villarreal vs Celta Vigo Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Villarreal v Celta Vigo — Team-Based Signals
Villarreal vs Celta Vigo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-2
HT 2-0
Celta Vigo
İS1
3-1
HT 2-1
Celta Vigo
İS1
1-1
HT 0-1
Villarreal
İS1
1-0
HT 0-0
Celta Vigo
İS1
1-1
HT 0-1
Villarreal
İS1
Villarreal 4-3 Celta Vigo — Actual Match Statistics
Villarreal edged past Celta Vigo 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, Villarreal had 45% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 55%, shots finished 24-20, expected goals 3.70 to 2.71.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Villarreal and 1.33 for Celta Vigo.
What was the final score of Villarreal vs Celta Vigo?
Villarreal 4-3 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Celta Vigo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 48%, draw 24%, Celta Vigo 28%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.