Celta Vigo 3-2 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 May 2024

Celta Vigo
3-2 HT 2-1
Villarreal
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Celta Vigo vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.95
6+ Goals
10%
8.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.38 — our 28% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.51
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.35
X/1
9%
5.78
X/2
10%
5.86
X/X
11%
5.17
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
19%
3.58
2/X
12%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.3pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celta Vigo v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 40%
-17% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.24/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.31
-30% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
20.9 Crosses 14.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Celta Vigo vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Villarreal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.36 xG 2.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
361 Passes 381
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 23
27 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.12.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 3-2 HT 2-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
30.04.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 3-1 HT 2-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
13.01.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
12.03.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 1-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
20.11.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
09.05.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 2-4 HT 1-3 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1

Celta Vigo 3-2 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
3-2
AWAY Villarreal
3.96 xG 0.64
54% Ball Possession 46%
23 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
563 Passes 456
94% Pass Accuracy 87%
42 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo edged past Villarreal 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Celta Vigo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 54% of the ball to Villarreal's 46%, shots finished 23-11, expected goals 3.96 to 0.64 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Celta Vigo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.83 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?

Celta Vigo 3-2 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 37%, draw 28%, Villarreal 35%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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