Valencia 0-1 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.52
Over 2.5
35%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
5.38
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.07
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
17%
4.33
X/2
13%
6.71
X/X
14%
3.67
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
10%
5.68
2/X
7%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.1pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.4pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 30%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -19%
1.39/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.46
+1% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.7 Crosses 18.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 1.26
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
340 Passes 219
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
29.07.2023 Valencia Valencia 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves HAZ
13.02.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
27.08.2021 Valencia Valencia 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
24.04.2021 Valencia Valencia 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
22.11.2020 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-2 HT 2-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
0-1
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
0.97 xG 0.83
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
335 Passes 224
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves nicked a narrow win over Valencia 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Valencia at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Valencia had 57% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 43%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.97 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Valencia and 1.00 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves?

Valencia 0-1 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Valencia 44%, draw 28%, Deportivo Alaves 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Valencia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valencia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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