Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.77
6+ Goals
11%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.3
X/1
13%
3.71
X/2
8%
10.9
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1
9%
23.15
2/2
9%
8.75
2/X
7%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-4.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -6%
1.66/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.63
-1% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 72%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
24.9 Crosses 16.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Almeria
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.28 xG 1.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
295 Passes 302
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.08.2023 Almeria Almeria 0-2 HT 0-2 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
06.02.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-0 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
08.10.2022 Almeria Almeria 3-1 HT 3-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
02.04.2021 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS2
08.11.2020 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
13.07.2020 Almeria Almeria 3-2 HT 3-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
0-1
AWAY Almeria
1.42 xG 0.37
68% Ball Possession 32%
27 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
515 Passes 200
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
36 Box Touches 10
39 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria edged past Rayo Vallecano 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Rayo Vallecano at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 68% of the ball to Almeria's 32%, shots finished 27-7, expected goals 1.42 to 0.37 — on chances, Rayo Vallecano could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.17 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Almeria in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 53%, draw 24%, Almeria 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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