Vila Nova 1-0 America Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.54
Over 2.5
35%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.99
No
63%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
39%
2.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.14
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.35 — our 39% vs market 36.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.1pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
65%
Under 2.5
61%
+4.1pp
35%
Over 2.5
39%
-4.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
46%
-9.4pp
63%
BTTS No
54%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.22/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.02
-12% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.2 Crosses 18.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-1D-4L
AWAY America Mineiro
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.34 xG 1.51
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
276 Passes 369
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
8 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.05.2024 America Mineiro America Mineiro 3-1 HT 2-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
16.10.2019 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
20.07.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
20.09.2017 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
10.06.2017 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-0 HT 1-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
20.09.2014 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
1-0
AWAY America Mineiro
0.75 xG 1.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 10
201 Passes 324
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs America Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova edged past America Mineiro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 30% — and on the day Vila Nova made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Vila Nova had 41% of the ball to America Mineiro's 59%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.75 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vila Nova and 1.33 for America Mineiro.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs America Mineiro?

Vila Nova 1-0 America Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie B on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs America Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 40%, draw 30%, America Mineiro 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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