Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
4.65
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
45%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.74
Over 2.5
39%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.03
No
64%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
18%
+12.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
45%
Away Win
58%
-12.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.8pp
36%
BTTS Yes
45%
-9.0pp
64%
BTTS No
55%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 62%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
0.39/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
-55% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% /
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
226 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
4 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
07.04.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
2-3
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv nicked a narrow win over Septemvri Sofia 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lokomotiv Plovdiv as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Septemvri Sofia had 44% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 56%, shots finished 12-12.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 31%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
26 Aug 2024
21:15 Cherno More Varna vs Levski Krumovgrad Analysis →