Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Monarcas Morelia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.8
Draw
19%
3.45
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
6%
2/1
12%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
32%
+13.2pp
19%
Draw
25%
-5.8pp
36%
Away Win
43%
-7.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.2pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 48%
+10% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -18%
1.43/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.67
+24% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
272 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Monarcas Morelia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
14.04.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-3 HT 1-2 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
05.10.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 0-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
14.04.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-1 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
22.10.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
27.08.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-3 HT 0-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
30.01.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 HT 0-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
POST-MATCH Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Monarcas Morelia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Monarcas Morelia shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.67 for Monarcas Morelia.

What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Monarcas Morelia?

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Monarcas Morelia in the Mexico - Primera A on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Monarcas Morelia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alebrijes de Oaxaca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 45%, draw 19%, Monarcas Morelia 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alebrijes de Oaxaca), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alebrijes de Oaxaca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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