Cienciano 3-1 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
46%
Away Win
45%
+0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cienciano EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 49%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
0.91/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.85
-13% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
289 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
16.7 Crosses 18.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cienciano
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Melgar
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.65 xG 1.03
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
231 Passes 285
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
31.03.2024 Melgar Melgar 2-0 HT 2-0 Cienciano Cienciano PER
10.09.2023 Cienciano Cienciano 0-1 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
15.04.2023 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 1-0 Cienciano Cienciano PER
17.09.2022 Cienciano Cienciano 2-2 HT 0-1 Melgar Melgar PER
30.04.2022 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 Cienciano Cienciano PER
16.03.2022 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 1-0 Cienciano Cienciano CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cienciano
3-1
AWAY Melgar
1.40 xG 2.26
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
230 Passes 311
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cienciano vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cienciano got the better of Melgar 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Melgar at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cienciano had 44% of the ball to Melgar's 56%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.40 to 2.26 — on chances, Melgar could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Cienciano and 1.33 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Cienciano vs Melgar?

Cienciano 3-1 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cienciano vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cienciano 26%, draw 28%, Melgar 46%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
PER More Peru - Premier League
26 Aug 2024
21:00 Union Comercio vs Cusco FC Analysis →