Korona Kielce 2-1 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
19.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.66
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
16%
4.22
X/2
7%
7.6
X/X
15%
4.31
2/1
12%
27.0
2/2
14%
6.05
2/X
6%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 28%
+9% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -6%
1.55/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.42
+20% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
356 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 73%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
18.0 Crosses 14.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.05 xG 1.38
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
220 Passes 308
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-0 HT 1-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
29.09.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-3 HT 1-2 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
30.04.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
14.10.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-2 HT 0-2 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
2-1
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.21 xG 0.70
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
351 Passes 328
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce squeezed past Stal Mielec 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Korona Kielce as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 50% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 50%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.21 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.50 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Stal Mielec?

Korona Kielce 2-1 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Korona Kielce win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 48%, draw 26%, Stal Mielec 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Korona Kielce) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Korona Kielce) ✗ BTTS No
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