Korona Kielce 1-0 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.38
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.61
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
10%
4.11
X/2
12%
7.86
X/X
12%
4.18
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
11%
6.46
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 27%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -5%
1.47/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.43
+24% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
291 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 73%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
16.0 Crosses 14.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.21 xG 1.63
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
238 Passes 323
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-3 HT 1-2 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
30.04.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
14.10.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-2 HT 0-2 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
1-0
AWAY Stal Mielec
0.59 xG 0.62
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 3
169 Passes 263
64% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce nicked a narrow win over Stal Mielec 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Korona Kielce as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 42% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 58%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.59 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Stal Mielec led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Korona Kielce and 2.00 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Stal Mielec?

Korona Kielce 1-0 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Korona Kielce win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 45%, draw 26%, Stal Mielec 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Korona Kielce), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Korona Kielce) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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