Palmeiras 3-0 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Aug 2025

📅26/08/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.33
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
14%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.67
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.07
6+ Goals
9%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 28% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.54
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.3
X/1
20%
3.65
X/2
4%
17.45
X/X
10%
6.68
2/1
11%
23.65
2/2
6%
15.85
2/X
4%
24.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
71%
-4.1pp
19%
Draw
18%
+1.0pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+3.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
1.92/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.72
-2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +14%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 73%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
26.1 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Sport Recife
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.01 xG 0.79
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
344 Passes 300
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.04.2025 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-2 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
26.10.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 0-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
04.07.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
10.01.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
14.09.2020 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-2 HT 2-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
24.09.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
3-0
AWAY Sport Recife
3.17 xG 0.32
46% Ball Possession 54%
22 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
313 Passes 370
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
33 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras swept aside Sport Recife 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 46% of the ball to Sport Recife's 54%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 3.17 to 0.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Palmeiras and 0.67 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Sport Recife?

Palmeiras 3-0 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 66%, draw 19%, Sport Recife 14%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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