Sport Recife 1-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Apr 2025

📅07/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
18%
5.39
6+ Goals
8%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.68
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.15
X/1
12%
6.01
X/2
15%
5.22
X/X
11%
3.67
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
17%
3.77
2/X
8%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.8pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.8pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 40%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.24/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.30
-2% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
292 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 80%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
20.3 Crosses 20.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.85 xG 2.02
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 9
291 Passes 365
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 0-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
04.07.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
10.01.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
14.09.2020 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-2 HT 2-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
24.09.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
27.05.2018 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-3 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
1-2
AWAY Palmeiras
0.48 xG 1.96
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
283 Passes 276
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 15
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras edged past Sport Recife 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Palmeiras made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 50% of the ball to Palmeiras's 50%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 0.48 to 1.96 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sport Recife and 1.50 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?

Sport Recife 1-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 32%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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