Santos 2-2 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Apr 2025

Santos
2-2 HT 0-1
Bahia
📅07/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.56
Over 2.5
41%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
5.06
6+ Goals
10%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.99
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
13%
4.61
X/2
12%
7.26
X/X
16%
3.87
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
9%
6.02
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.0pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.2pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +3%
1.52/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.45
+9% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
22.9 Crosses 16.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bahia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.17 xG 0.93
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 Passes 304
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.09.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
01.06.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BRK
18.05.2023 Santos Santos 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRK
11.05.2023 Santos Santos 3-0 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
12.09.2021 Santos Santos 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
30.05.2021 Bahia Bahia 3-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
2-2
AWAY Bahia
1.39 xG 1.98
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
397 Passes 297
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 23
32 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santos vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos and Bahia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Santos at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos had 55% of the ball to Bahia's 45%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 1.39 to 1.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santos and 0.83 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Santos vs Bahia?

Santos 2-2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Santos 42%, draw 29%, Bahia 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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