Santos vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Santos v Bahia — Team-Based Signals
Santos vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-0
Santos
BR1
1-1
HT 0-0
Santos
BRK
0-0
HT 0-0
Bahia
BRK
3-0
HT 2-0
Bahia
BR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Bahia
BR1
3-0
HT 0-0
Santos
BR1
Santos 2-2 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics
Santos and Bahia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Santos at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Santos had 55% of the ball to Bahia's 45%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 1.39 to 1.98.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santos and 0.83 for Bahia.
What was the final score of Santos vs Bahia?
Santos 2-2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Santos vs Bahia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Santos 42%, draw 29%, Bahia 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.