Cercle Brugge 2-1 Gent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.88
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.17
6+ Goals
13%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.74
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
24.0
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
14%
6.95
X/2
14%
4.85
X/X
12%
4.96
2/1
5%
32.0
2/2
20%
2.86
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.0 — our 6% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+4.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Gent EU Bookmakers 48%
-12% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +23%
1.17/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.44
-23% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
19.4 Crosses 14.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cercle Brugge
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gent
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.38 xG 1.99
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
182 Passes 407
60% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.02.2024 Gent Gent 1-2 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
22.10.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 2-0 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
20.05.2023 Gent Gent 2-2 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
13.05.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-4 HT 0-1 Gent Gent BEL
29.01.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 3-2 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
20.12.2022 Gent Gent 2-0 HT 0-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cercle Brugge
2-1
AWAY Gent
2.12 xG 0.40
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
161 Passes 229
55% Pass Accuracy 63%
32 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cercle Brugge vs Gent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cercle Brugge edged past Gent 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Cercle Brugge made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Cercle Brugge had 45% of the ball to Gent's 55%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 2.12 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cercle Brugge's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cercle Brugge had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.83 for Gent.

What was the final score of Cercle Brugge vs Gent?

Cercle Brugge 2-1 Gent in the Belgium - Pro League on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cercle Brugge vs Gent?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gent win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Cercle Brugge 35%, draw 26%, Gent 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gent) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gent) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →