Gent 1-2 Cercle Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.99
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.06
6+ Goals
14%
9.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.33
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
16%
5.36
X/2
10%
5.81
X/X
14%
5.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.0
2/2
14%
3.73
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-4.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.1pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gent EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 38%
-9% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.21/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/1.35
-29% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
307 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 68%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
20.8 Crosses 16.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gent
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cercle Brugge
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.08 xG 1.58
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
394 Passes 188
75% Pass Accuracy 61%
21 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 2-0 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
20.05.2023 Gent Gent 2-2 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
13.05.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-4 HT 0-1 Gent Gent BEL
29.01.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 3-2 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
20.12.2022 Gent Gent 2-0 HT 0-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEK
02.10.2022 Gent Gent 3-4 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gent
1-2
AWAY Cercle Brugge
2.18 xG 1.28
70% Ball Possession 30%
19 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 3
441 Passes 151
75% Pass Accuracy 57%
49 Box Touches 17
31 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gent vs Cercle Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cercle Brugge edged past Gent 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gent at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gent had 70% of the ball to Cercle Brugge's 30%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 2.18 to 1.28 — on chances, Gent could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cercle Brugge led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Gent and 1.83 for Cercle Brugge.

What was the final score of Gent vs Cercle Brugge?

Gent 1-2 Cercle Brugge in the Belgium - Pro League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gent vs Cercle Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gent win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gent 41%, draw 29%, Cercle Brugge 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gent) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gent) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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