Mechelen 1-1 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 11 Feb 2024

Mechelen
1-1 HT 1-1
Genk
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

Mechelen vs Genk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.48
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.36
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.23
1/2
7%
23.75
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
10%
7.2
X/2
19%
4.43
X/X
5%
4.85
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
17%
2.65
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.35
Value flag · 2/X at 13.35 — our 12% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mechelen v Genk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mechelen EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 50%
+10% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
1.66/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.51
+28% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
267 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 76%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
17.4 Crosses 17.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

Mechelen vs Genk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mechelen
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Genk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.31 xG 2.21
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
362 Passes 360
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Genk Genk 4-0 HT 2-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
17.02.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 2-2 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
28.10.2022 Genk Genk 3-1 HT 1-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
21.05.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 0-0 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
29.04.2022 Genk Genk 4-2 HT 1-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
16.02.2022 Genk Genk 4-1 HT 1-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL

Mechelen 1-1 Genk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mechelen
1-1
AWAY Genk
0.93 xG 1.35
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
289 Passes 402
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mechelen vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen and Genk couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Genk at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Mechelen had 44% of the ball to Genk's 56%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.93 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mechelen and 2.83 for Genk.

What was the final score of Mechelen vs Genk?

Mechelen 1-1 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mechelen vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mechelen 31%, draw 26%, Genk 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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