Sporting Charleroi 1-3 Anderlecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.36
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.46
6+ Goals
13%
13.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.46 — our 26% vs market 23.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.36
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
24.6
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
12%
7.31
X/2
15%
4.45
X/X
13%
4.66
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
22%
2.66
2/X
5%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.6 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+3.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.3pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 49%
+5% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.44/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.32
+22% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
14.9 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Charleroi
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Anderlecht
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.77 xG 2.06
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
366 Passes 400
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.08.2023 Anderlecht Anderlecht 2-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
26.12.2022 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 0-1 HT 0-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
02.10.2022 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
03.04.2022 Anderlecht Anderlecht 4-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
27.11.2021 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-3 HT 0-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
19.01.2021 Anderlecht Anderlecht 3-0 HT 2-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Charleroi
1-3
AWAY Anderlecht
1.19 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
328 Passes 397
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 8
POST-MATCH Sporting Charleroi vs Anderlecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Anderlecht got the better of Sporting Charleroi 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Anderlecht as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Charleroi had 46% of the ball to Anderlecht's 54%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.19 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Anderlecht led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sporting Charleroi and 2.17 for Anderlecht.

What was the final score of Sporting Charleroi vs Anderlecht?

Sporting Charleroi 1-3 Anderlecht in the Belgium - Pro League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Charleroi vs Anderlecht?

Before kick-off our model rated an Anderlecht win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sporting Charleroi 32%, draw 24%, Anderlecht 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Anderlecht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Anderlecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BEL More Belgium - Pro League
11 Feb 2024
15:30 RWDM 47 vs Royal Antwerp Analysis →
18:00 Mechelen vs Genk Analysis →
21:15 Gent vs Cercle Brugge Analysis →