26/09/2024
·
03:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
1-2
Real Esteli vs Aguila Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
40%
4-5
26%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
49%
24%
Draw
27%
36%
Away Win
24%
48%
Under 2.5
58%
52%
Over 2.5
42%
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
50%
BTTS No
54%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Real Esteli v Aguila — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Real Esteli
EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY
Aguila
EU Bookmakers 27%
+38% /
+38%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-12% /
-12%
0.75/1.29
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.49/2.09
-36%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
+8%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
14
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
5
6
Corners
4
333 · 80%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
275 · 76%
19.0
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
24.0
Crosses
19.0
4.0
Yellow Cards
2.0
Real Esteli vs Aguila Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Real Esteli
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Aguila
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
54%
Ball Possession
46%
21
Total Shots
8
11
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
2
The Meetings
09.08.2017
Real Esteli
1-0
HT 0-0
Aguila
CONL
1-0
HT 0-0
Aguila
CONL
POST-MATCH
Real Esteli vs Aguila
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Real Esteli edged past Aguila 2-1.
Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Real Esteli found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
What was the final score of Real Esteli vs Aguila?
Real Esteli 2-1 Aguila in the CONCACAF - Central Amerika Cup on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Real Esteli vs Aguila?
Before kick-off our model rated a Real Esteli win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Real Esteli 39%, draw 24%, Aguila 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Esteli), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Real Esteli)
✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
CONOAK
More CONCACAF - Central Amerika Cup
26 Sep 2024