Al Sadd 4-2 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.35
No
40%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
9.13
2-3 Goals
37%
2.44
4-5 Goals
30%
2.34
6+ Goals
15%
3.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-6.9pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.5pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
24%
+13.6pp
62%
Over 2.5
76%
-13.6pp
60%
BTTS Yes
70%
-10.4pp
40%
BTTS No
30%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Sadd EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +17%
2.08/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.89
+9% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / -29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
16.9 Crosses 14.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Sadd
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Gharafa
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.80 xG 0.72
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
400 Passes 283
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.03.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-2 HT 0-1 Al Sadd Al Sadd KAT
28.09.2023 Al Sadd Al Sadd 4-0 HT 2-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
15.02.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-3 HT 1-1 Al Sadd Al Sadd KAT
23.08.2022 Al Sadd Al Sadd 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
05.02.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-5 HT 0-2 Al Sadd Al Sadd KAT
17.10.2021 Al Sadd Al Sadd 6-4 HT 4-3 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Sadd
4-2
AWAY Al Gharafa
2.60 xG 1.37
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
367 Passes 325
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 29
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Sadd vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Sadd got the better of Al Gharafa 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Sadd as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Al Sadd had 53% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 47%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 2.60 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Sadd had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Al Sadd and 1.67 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Al Sadd vs Al Gharafa?

Al Sadd 4-2 Al Gharafa in the Qatar League on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Sadd vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Sadd win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Al Sadd 51%, draw 24%, Al Gharafa 25%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Sadd), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Sadd) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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