Real Zaragoza 1-2 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.9
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
19%
4.9
X/2
12%
6.95
X/X
15%
4.78
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
13%
4.76
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Zaragoza EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +21%
1.38/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.90
+0% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
24.8 Crosses 12.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Zaragoza
1W-2D-1L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.02 xG 0.71
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
370 Passes 234
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.05.2021 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 3-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
02.12.2020 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
11.04.2009 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-1 HT 0-1 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
09.11.2008 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 1-1 HT 1-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Zaragoza
1-2
AWAY CD Castellon
1.20 xG 1.35
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
195 Passes 315
64% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Real Zaragoza vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon squeezed past Real Zaragoza 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Real Zaragoza at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Real Zaragoza had 41% of the ball to CD Castellon's 59%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.20 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Real Zaragoza and 0.75 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Real Zaragoza vs CD Castellon?

Real Zaragoza 1-2 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Zaragoza vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Zaragoza win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Real Zaragoza 41%, draw 28%, CD Castellon 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Zaragoza), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Zaragoza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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