Dender EH 2-5 Mechelen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 28% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.94
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.45
X/1
12%
5.93
X/2
11%
5.5
X/X
11%
4.47
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
23%
3.54
2/X
8%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.5pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.3pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+2.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dender EH EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Mechelen EU Bookmakers 40%
+19% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.49/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.35
+150% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
13.0 Crosses 16.4
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dender EH
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Mechelen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.75
21.02.2009 Dender EH Dender EH 1-2 HT 0-2 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
29.09.2008 Mechelen Mechelen 4-1 HT 4-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
08.03.2008 Dender EH Dender EH 0-3 HT 0-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
30.09.2007 Mechelen Mechelen 2-2 HT 1-2 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dender EH
2-5
AWAY Mechelen
0.56 xG 3.27
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 4
341 Passes 354
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 29
22 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Dender EH vs Mechelen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen ran out comfortable winners over Dender EH 5-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Mechelen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Dender EH had 48% of the ball to Mechelen's 52%, shots finished 8-21, expected goals 0.56 to 3.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mechelen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dender EH and 2.75 for Mechelen.

What was the final score of Dender EH vs Mechelen?

Dender EH 2-5 Mechelen in the Belgium - Pro League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dender EH vs Mechelen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mechelen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Dender EH 35%, draw 26%, Mechelen 40%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mechelen), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mechelen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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