Puebla 1-0 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.39
6+ Goals
10%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 29% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+7.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-7.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 51%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.20/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.20
+7% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +46%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
260 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 81%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
17.9 Crosses 18.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.10 xG 1.52
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
296 Passes 338
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-2 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
21.10.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
11.03.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.10.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
11.09.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
27.02.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-3 HT 2-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
1-0
AWAY Guadalajara
1.38 xG 1.18
30% Ball Possession 70%
11 Total Shots 23
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
200 Passes 560
73% Pass Accuracy 91%
16 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 46
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla squeezed past Guadalajara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Puebla made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Puebla had 30% of the ball to Guadalajara's 70%, shots finished 11-23, expected goals 1.38 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Puebla and 1.50 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Guadalajara?

Puebla 1-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Puebla 33%, draw 27%, Guadalajara 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Guadalajara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5
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