Guadalajara 3-2 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.34
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.41
2-3 Goals
38%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.67
6+ Goals
16%
6.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
70%
-13.7pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.1pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+8.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.2pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 15%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +4%
1.49/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.10
-6% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
417 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 77%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
24.1 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Puebla
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.29 xG 1.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
322 Passes 276
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
11.03.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.10.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
11.09.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
27.02.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-3 HT 2-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
21.11.2021 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
3-2
AWAY Puebla
2.24 xG 1.34
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
340 Passes 322
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara edged past Puebla 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Guadalajara had 51% of the ball to Puebla's 49%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 2.24 to 1.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Guadalajara and 1.17 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Puebla?

Guadalajara 3-2 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 57%, draw 23%, Puebla 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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