Toluca vs Atlas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Toluca v Atlas — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Atlas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toluca 4-1 Atlas — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca swept aside Atlas 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%) came home.
Under the surface, possession split 58% to 42% in Toluca's favour, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.24 to 0.55.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.83 a game for Toluca against 1.00 for Atlas.
Toluca vs Atlas Result & Final Score
Toluca 4 - 1 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Toluca vs Atlas Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Toluca 67%, draw 18%, Atlas 15%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.