Toluca vs Atlas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Atlas — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Atlas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
0-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
3-2
HT 3-1
Atlas
MEK
2-4
HT 1-2
Atlas
MEK
0-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
0-0
HT 0-0
Atlas
MEK
Toluca 4-1 Atlas — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca swept aside Atlas 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Toluca had 58% of the ball to Atlas's 42%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.24 to 0.55.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Atlas.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca 4-1 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Atlas?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Toluca 57%, draw 21%, Atlas 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.