Nieciecza 2-1 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒20:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.49
6+ Goals
11%
13.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-1.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+2.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nieciecza EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 38%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
2.00/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.26
+40% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
257 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nieciecza
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.12.2023 Nieciecza Nieciecza 2-1 HT 1-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
21.07.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-2 HT 1-2 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL1
03.06.2023 Nieciecza Nieciecza 2-1 HT 1-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
06.11.2022 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-2 HT 1-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL1
21.04.2021 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-1 HT 0-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL1
25.09.2020 Nieciecza Nieciecza 0-1 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nieciecza
2-1
AWAY Arka Gdynia
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nieciecza vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nieciecza squeezed past Arka Gdynia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Nieciecza found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Nieciecza had 47% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 53%, shots finished 10-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nieciecza had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nieciecza and 1.17 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Nieciecza vs Arka Gdynia?

Nieciecza 2-1 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - 1st Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nieciecza vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nieciecza win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Nieciecza 37%, draw 26%, Arka Gdynia 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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