Cracovia Krakow 6-2 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.43
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 24% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.35
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.2
X/1
17%
4.12
X/2
13%
8.62
X/X
15%
4.97
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
10%
6.57
2/X
5%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-9.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 26%
-16% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
1.61/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/1.42
-25% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +41%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
391 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
26.2 Crosses 22.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cracovia Krakow
6-2
AWAY Motor Lublin
3.35 xG 1.40
47% Ball Possession 53%
22 Total Shots 9
11 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
315 Passes 354
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cracovia Krakow cruised past Motor Lublin 6-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cracovia Krakow as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 6-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cracovia Krakow had 47% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 53%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 3.35 to 1.40.

What was the final score of Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?

Cracovia Krakow 6-2 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cracovia Krakow win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cracovia Krakow 43%, draw 28%, Motor Lublin 29%. The final score 6-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cracovia Krakow), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cracovia Krakow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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